I was doing some research on Wild Bolt, and I saw a post back from 2011 by Falmea saying that it was "Exactly 33.3% chance" for each damage probability.
So being an engineer and mildly obsessed with numbers, I decided to do a quick observational study and spent the last two hours casting 51 Wild Bolts. My results were as follows:
Now I didn't expect the numbers to come out to perfect 3rds, but the trends were remarkably stable throughout, accuracy as well (I'm @92%).
So i'm wondering, were the chances changed to something like a 25% 50% 25%? instead of 33.3% 33.3% 33.%? That post from Falmea was 11 years ago so I figure maybe there was an update that I missed during my research. I also considered (but highly doubt) that maybe the enemies have an effect on it? They were all rank 10 Greyhorn Mercenaries (Moon) from Zafaria.
I only really got into it a few months ago but I gotta say, I love how particular and intricate the game is mechanics wise, very engaging.
I wonder if the TC/Item card versions were different than the original spell. For it to be 2 pips for DPP sake it makes sense to prefer that it hits that 100 range more often. I can also see that it might have just silently been updated in the last 10 years. For a while before the Insane Bolt Changes. Insane Bolt was a better option for most Storm Wizards.
49 isn't a very large sample size. It's been a while since my AP stats course, but you only scored 7.67 more middle-range wild bolts than expected, so that doesn't sound like major variation.
The spell itself needs a major over haul considering how underwhelming it can be when it hits for 10 or 100 and too overpowered hitting for 1000 for 2 pips. Perhaps changing it into an aoe for 3 pips that does more damage base on how many enemies is present could be better. Insane bolt is already better to rely on than wild bolt.
