Hit first priority. I have seen a lot of posts about this subject, who hits first, you or NPC? The answer always says it is random...not so. I recently decided to keep a log
of 100 fights.NPC's went first 82 times out of that 100 leaving me with only 18 shots at hitting first. I don't believe you can call that random. especially when there is one of you and 4 of them. Which often can mean your dead before you even get a shot in. I really think this needs to be looked into, give us the players who pay to play this game a more even battle.
While those numbers you found are certainly frightening in some regard, please do not think that a small sample size, such as 100, at least relatively speaking, is concrete evidence of a biased system. Sure, 82 out of 100 individual runs is suspicious to an extent, but perhaps you were just extraordinarily unlucky? There are people who can get a full set of Malistaire gear from Darkmoor in three or four runs but that doesn't mean the drop rate is 100 percent.
More conclusive results would surely come from a more thorough test. If you were to do, say, 1000 runs of a particular battle, you would probably find something around 500+/- up to 50 runs where you or the enemy went first. This would suggest that you have a 50 percent chance of going first, or second, in any given battle. I'm certainly not telling you to go out and do 1000 runs, but I am saying that more conclusive evidence could be gathered if you did.
There is even an argument that could be made for players to always go first in a PvE setting. This would allow for a more quality of life experience, especially when it comes to end-game bosses, such as Renegade Druid and Devourer, where "fishing" for first is commonplace.
I am still checking my fights, not just one boss fight which you misunderstood that was 100 different fights. I keep a file every time I fight. Maybe I am "just unlucky" but I am still getting an average of 8 out of 10 fights that the npc's hit first.
I was first pick in 64% of fights in street fight/46% on boss fight and it look like if you have first pick in dungeon first fight you keep getting first for the rest in 74% of the time. Tested on around 250 streets 50 bosses and 150 dungeons with a lvl 110 fire in April 2020 in Polaris and arc 1 worlds (Ye I had a doubt too and I tried to see if it was real or just an impression) I add on last beastmoon we had second pick each 3 first pick in a row but I think that was a coincidence It's not a proof but I'm sure if we have more return about first pick chance we will have 50% with big variations Some fight have determined chance too like 100% or 0%
Yeah I think it's fair to say this is biased in favor of the enemy. My guess would be 3/4 enemy (6.3% of >= 82) or 4/5 enemy (27% of >= 82) as they are way more reasonable to see with the numbers you gave. Technically this is still random so that might be what they're trying to say.
I'd love to see aggregate data from the community on this subject. It could be interesting to find what areas are the "fairest" and what bosses are the "fairest" for the chance of going first....
Idk how serene sparcks modeled it, but I used a binomial distribution and the chances were too small for any of my calculators to call anything except 0. Between my normal calculator, stattrek and geogebra because I was too lazy to use others, the probability must be less than 50%.
How much less? Well I threw the potential answers from serene sparks into Geogebra to check their work. I came out with similar numbers as well, which meant we were on the same track. I wanted to add something here strange one on so I tried a 10.1% chance the player gets it and it came out to be a 99.49% chance of getting the mentioned sample or worse. The other one I checked was a 1/3 player just to see if there was any fun to be had there. and bottom line there was a .05% chance of it being that small. So 3/4 or 4/5 in favor of the enemy seems likely, otherwise we'd have expected more.
I would love to do my own experiment on this. Where was the place you used to test this, PawPaw?
especially when there is one of you and 4 of them. Which often can mean your dead before you even get a shot in. I really think this needs to be looked into, give us the players who pay to play this game a more even battle.
