I'm wondering if anyone is having the same issues with their probability being incorrect.
The specific statistics I'm referring to now involves the power-pip chance. As accumulated by my gear, my power-pip chance is at 74%, so I decided to test it out by recording my own sheets for 200 turns, as well as recording the gameplay to make sure I didn't make any mistakes. Of the turns where there were no other factors involved (such as Power Play being active), I hit exactly 52.5% turns wherein I received a power-pip. Of course, if I bring this up as a ticket, it would be jocked up to just bad luck, so I am continuing to actually record my turns to take away that factor.
I know that others feel this way regarding probability statistics and the accuracy of spells - I'm sure it's the same lines of code that calculate the chance - so I turn to the forms to see if anyone else has calculated & recorded their own proof of statistical haywire.
Honestly, statistics are just weird - take a coin tosses for example. Assuming there are no shenanigans going on you should have a 50% of landing on heads and a 50% chance of landing on tails, right?. So if you flipped a coin 100 times you would think you would for sure end up with 50 heads and 50 tails. But if you use a mathematical formula to calculate the odds you'll learn that instead of "for sure" your chance of getting exactly 50 heads (and therefore, 50 tails) are actually only about 8%. Your odds of getting at least 50 heads, meanwhile, would be only about 53% - a much better chance but still far from certain. So I would not expect a 74% power pip chance to mean that you should be getting a power pip about every 74 rounds out of 100, or some number close to that.
I do have characters that have 100% pip chance and I have never seen them gain a white pip at the beginning of a round. This leads me to believe that the display is accurate. If the displayed power pip chance was incorrect, why would it suddenly become accurate at 100%? Ditto for fizzling. I've heard other players claim you can fizzle even when your accuracy should put you at 100% or more, but I have never seen this firsthand on my own characters either. So I'd chalk this all up to statistical weirdness rather than an actual bug.
It’s important to consider the concept of independence in probability, which is what Tanner is referring to. When each round begins, you have a 74% chance of gaining a power pip. Your chance of gaining a power pip is not influenced by whether you gained a power pip the previous round. Each round is independent from the previous rounds.
This is similar to the old critical system before it was reworked. When you casted a spell, the critical hit percentage in your spellbook told you your % chance of getting a critical. Your chance of getting a critical was not influenced by whether the spell you previously casted criticalled. Each time you cast a spell was independent from any other time a spell was cast.
